Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
